Source - The National Weather Service
A significant winter storm is set to impact the southern United States starting Friday and will continue through the weekend, with effects reaching up the East Coast by Saturday night. This storm will bring a range of precipitation as it rolls through the Southern Plains and Southern Rockies, intensifying and making its way into the Mid-South and Gulf Coast states, further extending into the Tennessee Valley by Saturday.
As a cold air mass pushes down from a strong high-pressure system located in North Dakota, the weather pattern becomes quite dynamic. On Thursday, a cutoff low pressure off the West Coast is moving toward Southern California and will merge with a northern stream trough advancing from the northern Rockies. This interaction forms a significant trough that spans the continental United States by Saturday.
Ahead of this system, subtropical moisture from the East Pacific will spread across northern Mexico, while Gulf moisture will rapidly move north, starting Thursday evening. The combination of these moisture sources, coupled with the arctic air mass in place, will create a complex weather scenario. Expect a wide array of wintry precipitation types: rain near the Gulf Coast, transitioning to freezing rain just inland, sleet further north, and snow where the warm layer of air remains below freezing.
One important update from the latest forecasts is a noticeable northward shift in both the expected precipitation amounts (QPF) and the temperature profiles, including a warmer air mass. Nevertheless, surface cold air should continue its progression, which signifies that the area affected by winter weather is still expanding, stretching from the Gulf Coast all the way to the central Plains.
As the precipitation intensifies late Friday into Saturday, residents in the southern Plains and Mid-South should prepare for heavy rainfall, impactful freezing rain, and even considerable snow accumulation, potentially leading to dangerous conditions, including over an inch of ice and deep snow mixed with heavy sleet. Prolonged power outages could occur, particularly during this season's coldest air.
Stay updated on the forecast for your area by visiting weather.gov. Keep in mind that much of the heavy precipitation may continue beyond the typical forecasting period, so forecasts will be available through 00Z Sunday (Day 3.5). For this period, model probabilities forecast that areas in the central and southern Colorado Rockies as well as the central New Mexico ranges, will have a 50-80% chance of receiving more than 8 inches of snow. There’s also a significant 20-50% chance for areas from northeast Texas, across the Louisiana-Arkansas border, into northern Mississippi and northwestern Alabama to receive more than 0.5 inches of precipitation.
Prepare yourself and your loved ones for this winter weather, and don’t forget to keep an eye on updates as the storm progresses!
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